Oversimplified: Volume 105
My quantified self set-up, thinking like a superforecaster, and Jensen's inequality
Hey there 👋
You might have noticed that I’ve been getting more into the quantified self world. It’s been a lot of fun and I’ve got a few more related projects underway. Stay tuned there. Otherwise, let’s get to the best links I found on the internet this week.
✍️ My Quantified Self Set-up
Conor Dewey | Quantified Self | 2021-04-09
When I published my inaugural quantified self report a week ago, I ended up getting a few questions about how I track various metrics. While I suspect this system will evolve over time, I can share how I automate things today.
📚 Think Like a Superforecaster
Andre Plaut | Mental Models | 2021-04-02
This post synthesizes Philip Tetlock’s Superforecasting into concrete steps you can run through next time you are making a prediction. I’ve wanted this to exist for some time, as I really enjoyed the book but have trouble remembering how to action the learnings.
📚 The Current State of Mobile UX
Edward Scott | Design | 2021-04-07
This was an interesting read, mostly thanks to a unique dataset of 289 monitored user/site sessions resulting in 2,597 mobile UX and usability issues. These were the 18 most common design pitfalls and strategic oversights.
📚 See Randomness
Paul Graham | Mental Models | 2006-04-06
I hadn’t come across this particular essay from Paul Graham before this week, and I’m glad I did. Lots of gold here: “If you have to choose between two theories, prefer the one that doesn't center on you”
📚 Inside a Viral Website
Tom Neill | Startups | 2021-03-31
Intro says it all: “As anyone reading this knows, the Ever Given was stuck in the Suez Canal for just over 6 days. It blocked a route that normally carried ~10% of the world’s trade. More importantly, it also generated more than 10% of the world’s memes. This is an account of running istheshipstillstuck.com.”
🔗 Jensen's Inequality
Erik Bernhardsson | Mental Models | 2021-01-02
This tweet has been living rent-free in my head this week. It makes sense given Jensen's inequality and expected value, but also makes me uncomfortable when I think about putting this model in action. I’m still not sure why.
🔗 Org Structure Timelapses
Kevin Yien | Startups | 2021-04-06
This would be such a cool visualization. I suspect that most established companies could dig up this information if they wanted to. I’m sure we could learn a lot from identifying patterns.
Food for Thought
“This is why cynics don’t build empires and why an imagined order can be maintained only if large segments of the population – and in particular large segments of the elite and the security forces – truly believe in it.” — Sapiens
Until next time
As always, if you're enjoying Oversimplified, I'd love it if you shared it with a friend or two. If anything stood out, whether good or bad, I would love to hear about it. Reply to this email or tweet at me and let’s chat.
Until next time,
Conor